Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+106/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 7th-most receiving yards per game in football (40.0) vs. running backs this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties project as the 9th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Isiah Pacheco has posted a paltry -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 13th percentile among RBs.
Isiah Pacheco's 0.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in the NFL: 6th percentile for running backs.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the worst pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a measly 2.0 yards per game while checking in at the 4th percentile among RBs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.

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