Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 21

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 21, 2024

Updated Jan 26, 2025 11:36 PM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+119/-149).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see just 132.5 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.
The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).
As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been lousy this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 35.8% of their opportunities: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Isiah Pacheco has been a less important option in his team's rushing attack this year (48.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (64.1%).

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