Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 25, 2024 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run on 37.1% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
The model projects Isiah Pacheco to be much less involved in his team's running game in this game (45.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.0% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year with their run defense.

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