Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 12, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
In this game, Isiah Pacheco is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 88th percentile among RBs with 15.5 rush attempts.
Isiah Pacheco has been a much bigger part of his offense's running game this season (58.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (40.9%).
The the Chiefs O-line grades out as the best in the league last year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 30.7% run rate.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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