Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
In this game, Isiah Pacheco is forecasted by the model to slot into the 95th percentile among RBs with 17.8 rush attempts.
After accounting for 40.9% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Isiah Pacheco has had a larger role in the run game this season, now comprising 63.0%.
When talking about opening holes for runners (and the ramifications it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in football last year.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Green Bay's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to run on 38.0% of their plays: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.

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