Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
In this week's contest, Isiah Pacheco is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 80th percentile among RBs with 14.5 rush attempts.
After making up 40.9% of his team's rushing play calls last year, Isiah Pacheco has been more involved in the running game this year, now accounting for 61.9%.
In regards to run support (and the ramifications it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in the NFL last year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 36.4% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.

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