Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.4 plays per game.
Isiah Pacheco has been given 44.3% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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