Isaiah McKenzie Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
The Bills are willing to include receivers in their rushing attack, and Isaiah McKenzie has garnered 3.4% of carries this year (95th percentile).
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 10th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 105 per game) versus the New England Patriots defense this year.
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.