Isaiah McKenzie Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+116/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.7% pass rate.
Isaiah McKenzie's 27.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 9.9.
Isaiah McKenzie's receiving skills have been refined this season, notching 3.2 yards per game compared to a measly 1.5 last season.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (69.7%) vs. wideouts this year (69.7%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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