Isaiah McKenzie Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+154/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
Isaiah McKenzie's 26.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 9.9.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Isaiah McKenzie's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 82.9% to 75.1%.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.5%) vs. wideouts this year (61.5%).

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