Isaiah McKenzie Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Isaiah McKenzie's 21.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 9.7.
Isaiah McKenzie's receiving performance has improved this season, accumulating 2.8 yards per game compared to a mere 1.2 last season.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
Isaiah McKenzie's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 73.0%.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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