Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+107/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 71.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Isaiah McKenzie has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (53.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (22.1%).
Isaiah McKenzie has notched significantly more air yards this year (27.0 per game) than he did last year (12.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Isaiah McKenzie's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 71.6%.
The New York Jets defense has allowed the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 133.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) versus wideouts this year (63.2%).
The New York Jets pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, conceding 7.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.

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