Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-102/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Isaiah McKenzie has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (52.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (22.1%).
Isaiah McKenzie has compiled quite a few more air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Isaiah McKenzie's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 80.1% to 70.7%.
Isaiah McKenzie has been among the bottom wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.24 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 23rd percentile.

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