Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Isaiah McKenzie has run fewer routes this season (60.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (22.1%).
Isaiah McKenzie has totaled many more air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Isaiah McKenzie's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.9% to 69.8%.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.

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