Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 4:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Isaiah McKenzie has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (21.0 per game) than he did last year (12.0 per game).
Isaiah McKenzie's 21.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 9.7.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
Isaiah McKenzie's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 73.0%.
Isaiah McKenzie has been among the least effective receivers in football, averaging a mere 7.61 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 25th percentile among WRs
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.