Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 2:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-480).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +289 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +280.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Isaiah McKenzie has posted many more air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).
Isaiah McKenzie's 27.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 9.7.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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