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Isaiah McKenzie

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+378/-773).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.4 plays per game.

The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.

THE BLITZ projects Isaiah McKenzie to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the end zone this week (10.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.7% in games he has played).

Isaiah McKenzie has been among the best possession receivers in football, hauling in a stellar 77.6% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.

The Buffalo Bills O-line has afforded their QB 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Isaiah McKenzie has accumulated a measly 13.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 21st percentile among wideouts.

Isaiah McKenzie's 10.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in the NFL: 18th percentile for wide receivers.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).

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