Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-589).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +328 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +320.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Isaiah McKenzie has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.7% this year, which puts him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
Isaiah McKenzie has accrued significantly more air yards this season (30.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).
Isaiah McKenzie's 25.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 9.7.

Favors Under

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Isaiah McKenzie's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.9% to 71.7%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.4%).
The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.55 per game this year.
The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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