Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 5:16 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+268/-461).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +368 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +268.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Isaiah McKenzie has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (21.0 per game) than he did last year (12.0 per game).
Isaiah McKenzie's 21.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 9.7.
Isaiah McKenzie ranks in the 81st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.33 per game.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (69.7%) versus wideouts this year (69.7%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
Isaiah McKenzie's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 73.0%.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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