Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 11:47 PM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+298/-534).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +401 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +298.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions this week.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Isaiah McKenzie to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (13.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Isaiah McKenzie has posted a measly 12.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 19th percentile among WRs.
Isaiah McKenzie's 9.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the worst in the NFL: 18th percentile for wide receivers.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.59 per game since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.