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Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely Receptions
Player Prop Week 20

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

Isaiah Likely Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Isaiah Likely's 30.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 16.2.

When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 49.1% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Isaiah Likely's 77.2% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a substantial decrease in his receiving prowess over last season's 82.1% figure.

This year, the daunting Bills defense has allowed a feeble 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.

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