Isaiah Likely Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Isaiah Likely

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
In this week's contest, Isaiah Likely is expected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.9 targets.
The model projects Isaiah Likely to be a more important option in his team's pass attack in this week's game (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.1% in games he has played).
The Ravens O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Isaiah Likely's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 65.4% to 82.2%.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4 points.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.09 seconds per play.
This year, the tough Jaguars defense has allowed a puny 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 6th-best rate in football.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Jacksonville's LB corps has been excellent this year, projecting as the 10th-best in football.

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