Isaiah Likely Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Isaiah Likely

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:26 AM EST

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Chargers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.5 per game) this year.
In this contest, Isaiah Likely is predicted by the projection model to find himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.4 targets.
The model projects Isaiah Likely to be much more involved in his offense's passing game in this week's contest (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.8% in games he has played).

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 53.9% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Isaiah Likely's 1.3 adjusted catches per game this season signifies a substantial regression in his receiving talent over last season's 2.6 rate.

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