Isaiah Likely Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Isaiah Likely to accumulate 5.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Isaiah Likely to be a less important option in his offense's passing game this week (7.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (13.3% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a big 9.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Isaiah Likely has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among TEs, completing a measly 65.5% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 15th percentile.
The Houston Texans pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (69%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (69.0%).