Isaiah Likely Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Isaiah Likely

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+169/-248).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +208 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +169.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens have incorporated play action on 29.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the lowest Completion% in football (57.2%) vs. tight ends this year (57.2%).
The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the least passing touchdowns in football to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers project as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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