Isaiah Hodgins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Hodgins

WR · New York Giants

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah Hodgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.50 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Isaiah Hodgins to be much more involved in his team's passing attack this week (19.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.4% in games he has played).
Isaiah Hodgins has been among the best possession receivers in football, completing an impressive 87.6% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
The New York Giants have utilized play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New York Giants offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.