Isaiah Hodgins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Isaiah Hodgins

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Hodgins

WR · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah Hodgins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a huge 13-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Giants to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New York Giants offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
The Dolphins defense has given up the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (183.0) to wide receivers this year.
This year, the poor Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up a staggering 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 3rd-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

Isaiah Hodgins has accrued far fewer air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (42.0 per game).
Isaiah Hodgins's 23.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 36.0.
The New York Giants offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Isaiah Hodgins has accumulated a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (25.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).
Isaiah Hodgins's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 86.0% to 67.6%.

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