Irv Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Irv Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.8 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Irv Smith Jr. has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (70.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (55.6%).
With an exceptional 3.0 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) since the start of last season, Irv Smith Jr. stands among the leading pass-catching tight ends in the league.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Irv Smith Jr.'s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 73.2% to 56.1%.
Since the start of last season, the stout Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed a mere 70.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-best rate in the league.

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