Irv Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Irv Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+190/-256).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -256.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.
This week's spread suggests an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are giant -10-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.3% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are predicted by the projections to run just 61.4 plays on offense in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
Irv Smith Jr. has been a much smaller piece of his team's passing game this season (7.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.7%).
The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Irv Smith Jr.'s 2.1 adjusted receptions per game this season conveys a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching talent over last season's 3.1 mark.

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