Irv Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:57 AM UTC

Analysis

Irv Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.
The Texans pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (80.1%) versus TEs this year (80.1%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Irv Smith Jr.'s 18.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 25.8.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Houston's unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the league.

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