Irv Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 2:50 AM EST

Analysis

Irv Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to notch 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Irv Smith's 30.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 88th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Irv Smith has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, catching a mere 44.8% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 7th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (62%) to tight ends since the start of last season (62.0%).