Irv Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Irv Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the greatest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Irv Smith Jr.'s 68.4% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a noteworthy progression in his passing game utilization over last year's 55.6% rate.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bengals are forecasted by the model to run just 60.1 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
Irv Smith Jr.'s 55.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a noteable decline in his pass-catching talent over last year's 73.2% rate.
Irv Smith Jr.'s receiving effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching just 2.85 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 5.82 rate last season.
Irv Smith Jr. profiles as one of the worst tight ends in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 20th percentile.
The 49ers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (62.5%) versus TEs this year (62.5%).

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