Irv Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 4:01 PM EST

Analysis

Irv Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.8 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Irv Smith Jr. has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (70.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (55.6%).
In regards to air yards, Irv Smith Jr. ranks in the lofty 75th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a staggering 21.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Irv Smith Jr.'s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 73.2% to 56.1%.
Irv Smith Jr.'s 3.0 adjusted yards per target this season illustrates a a remarkable decline in his receiving proficiency over last season's 5.8 rate.
Irv Smith Jr. has been among the worst tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging just 3.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 24th percentile.

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