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Irv Smith

Irv Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans

Irv Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.

This year, the feeble Texans defense has conceded a massive 61.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-most in the NFL.

The Texans pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (80.1%) versus TEs this year (80.1%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.

Irv Smith Jr.'s 18.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 25.8.

Irv Smith Jr. profiles as one of the least effective receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.34 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 16th percentile.

Irv Smith Jr. grades out as one of the bottom TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.

More Irv Smith Player Props

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