Irv Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Irv Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-101/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to accumulate 4.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Vikings are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Irv Smith has been among the worst possession receivers in football among TEs, completing a mere 51.7% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 12th percentile.
Irv Smith has been among the least efficient receivers in football among tight ends, averaging a mere 5.11 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 12th percentile.

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