Irv Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Irv Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to be a less important option in his offense's pass game this week (5.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.7% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Irv Smith has been among the least efficient receivers in football among tight ends, averaging a measly 5.81 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 11th percentile.
The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.