Irv Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Irv Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+199/-310).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +306 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +199.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Irv Smith has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 11.6% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
Irv Smith has notched a whopping 25.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among tight ends.
Irv Smith's 27.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 79th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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