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Irv Smith

Irv Smith Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Irv Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+321/-592).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +336 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +321.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Irv Smith has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 12.5% this year, which ranks him in the 75th percentile among TEs.

Irv Smith has accrued a monstrous 30.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among tight ends.

Irv Smith's 28.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 86th percentile for TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Irv Smith has been among the worst possession receivers in football among TEs, completing a mere 51.7% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 12th percentile.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (65.9%) to TEs since the start of last season (65.9%).

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