Irv Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Irv Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+343/-659).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -617 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -659.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Irv Smith has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.0% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
Irv Smith has accounted for a colossal 13.2% of his offense's air yards this year: 91st percentile among TEs.
Irv Smith's 30.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 88th percentile for tight ends.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Irv Smith has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, catching a mere 44.8% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 7th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (62%) to tight ends since the start of last season (62.0%).