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Irv Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+228/-364).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +265 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +228.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Irv Smith has garnered a whopping 15.7% of his offense's air yards this year: 90th percentile among tight ends.The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 6th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per snap.Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.Irv Smith has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, hauling in a mere 47.2% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 24th percentile.
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