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Irv Smith

Irv Smith Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Irv Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+272/-460).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +310 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +272.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (75.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (75.5%).

The Green Bay Packers defense has yielded the 6th-most TDs through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.47 per game since the start of last season.

The Green Bay Packers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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