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Ian Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-170).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -170.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB PJ Walker in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Opposing QBs have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.Ian Thomas's 16.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 10.4.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 51.6 plays per game.Ian Thomas has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, catching just 65.1% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 24th percentile.The Carolina Panthers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
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