Ian Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

My Account Log Out

reorder

Ian Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Ian Thomas has been a much bigger part of his offense's air attack this season (10.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (5.0%).
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Ian Thomas's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 64.8% to 51.0%.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (60.2%) to tight ends this year (60.2%).

More Ian Thomas Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow