Ian Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+230/-325).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (86.7%) vs. tight ends this year (86.7%).
The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have gone for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Ian Thomas has been among the weakest pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a measly 1.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 19th percentile among tight ends.
Ian Thomas's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 64.8% to 58.6%.