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Ian Thomas

Ian Thomas Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals

Ian Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+230/-325).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.

The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (86.7%) vs. tight ends this year (86.7%).

The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Carolina Panthers have gone for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.

The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Ian Thomas has been among the weakest pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a measly 1.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 19th percentile among tight ends.

Ian Thomas's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 64.8% to 58.6%.

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