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Ian Thomas
NFL · Player Props
Ian Thomas
TE · Carolina Panthers
Receptions
Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022 Updated Sep 26, 2022 2:50 AM EST
NFL Props Ian Thomas Receptions

Ian Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -350 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +100.

Favors Over
  • The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.
  • The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Ian Thomas has been among the weakest TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a mere 1.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 17th percentile among TEs.
  • Ian Thomas's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 64.8% to 54.4%.
  • The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (61.4%) to tight ends since the start of last season (61.4%).
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