Ian Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Ian Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback P.J. Walker in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense as the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.28 seconds per play.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
Ian Thomas's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 64.8% to 57.9%.
Ian Thomas's pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, notching just 5.18 yards-per-target vs a 6.53 figure last season.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in football (just 21.0) vs. TEs this year.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69.4%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (69.4%).

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