Ian Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Ian Thomas's receiving effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, compiling 8.55 yards-per-target vs just 6.53 rate last year.
The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Ian Thomas's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 64.8% to 54.4%.
The New Orleans Saints defense has yielded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 36.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (61.4%) to tight ends since the start of last season (61.4%).