Ian Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+108/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 63.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 5th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Ian Thomas has been among the worst pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging just 14.0 yards per game while grading out in the 24th percentile among TEs.
The New York Giants pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. TEs since the start of last season, yielding 6.70 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the NFL.
The New York Giants pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.67 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the NFL.