Ian Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Ian Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Ian Thomas's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 64.8% to 74.6%.
Ian Thomas's talent in picking up extra yardage have been refined this season, averaging 9.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 4.00 figure last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered the 9th-most receiving yards per game in football (52.0) vs. TEs this year.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
Ian Thomas has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (34.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (44.3%).

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