Ian Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Ian Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in football.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Ian Thomas's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 64.8% to 68.1%.
Ian Thomas's talent in grinding out extra yardage have gotten better this season, accumulating 9.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.00 mark last season.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Ian Thomas has run fewer routes this year (33.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (44.3%).

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